Lots of people are caught up in The War, and can't imagine a scenario where anything could possibly eclipse The War for any political traction. People speculate that national security will be the most important issue in the 2004 election, and everything else will be just small potatoes in comparison. Let's examine this idea, and see if we can notice nay cracks in the logic that leads to these conclusions.
State Farm corporate headquarters in Bloomington-Normal, IL employs about 15,000 people. This is the largest employer for this town by a factor of 4, and is in fact the reason that the twin cites aren't just another college town with a car plant.
This Business Week article talks about jobs being exported from the US to India, including jobs in things like financial analysis, and other white collar jobs. The people employed at the State Farm corporate HQ are prime candidates for this type of job exportation.
Let's figure something like 10,000 of those jobs are elegible for exportation. And let's speculate that 2500, or about 16% of the total employed at State Farm, are actually replaced by work exported to India. What is the effect on the town of Bloomington-Normal?
Well, Bloomington-Normal appears to have a workforce of 95,322. Current unemployment is 3,131, for 3.3%. The increase in unemployment by adding 2,500 people looks like it would raise unemployment rates to 5.9%.
But more than just the increase in unemployment statistics would also be the decrease in the gross product of the two towns. In other words, other people would lose either employment, or available work hours, or income to their businesses. Big fat ripple effect, mostly due to the fact that the jobs lost at State Farm paid well and included benefits like health insurance.
And are those jobs coming back? No, not at State Farm they won't. End result? Nice and comfy Bloomington-Normal becomes just another American town, with average unemployment, average wages, and average opportunities.
How far a fall is that psychologically for a town that has seen itself as above the day to day struggles of the American economy? Thought you were safe, didn't you? Well, surprise! You're a statistic. Now you know how those steel workers felt in the 1970's.
The 2500 laid off? Suprised, adrift, and feeling more than a little betrayed. The remaining 12,500? Some are definitely safe from exportation, but most aren't, and some that are still worry about the possibility. Let's call it an increase in the tension of daily life.
This is the type of thing that would cause people to look around, and survey what the hell is going on.
And I'm willing to bet that none of this happens until after the 2004 election. But when it does, some people that are vaguely Republican are going to reassess their personal views.
Now, look around at your local economy. How many of your neighbors and friends could possibly be looking at having their jobs eliminated completely in this country? How would that affect your local economy?
You aren't carrying too much debt, are you? Student loans dragging out maybe, or that 60 month car loan? How's the credit card project coming along? Would you be underwater on your house if you refinanced recently, and the value of your property drops by 10%? 20%? 30%?
How long could you last if things just stopped today for you?
And who would you blame if that is what happened?
Posted by dglynn at April 14, 2003 04:03 PM